Households Under Constraints. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policy in Europe

Abstract: We assess the impact of Borrower-Based Measures (BBMs) frameworks on household macroeconomic indicators across a panel of European countries from 1995 to 2021. To derive causal estimates of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT), we employ the staggered Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation method proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). Our results indicate that the introduction of BBMs is associated with a significant decline in the growth rate of house prices and house-price-to-income ratios (-7 pp), as well as a reduction in household credit growth (-5 pp). The peak of the effect occurs between 7 and 10 quarters, and reverts back around three years from introduction. We are unable to find effects on home ownership or private credit growth.